DOMINION ENERGY, INC (D) Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

Q3 2024 operating EPS was $0.98 and GAAP diluted EPS was $1.12, up year-over-year from $0.75 and $0.16, respectively, driven by stronger segment earnings (especially Virginia), normal weather, and nuclear PTC, while preserving full-year 2024 operating EPS guidance midpoint of $2.75 and narrowing the range to $2.68–$2.83 .
Management reaffirmed 2025 operating EPS guidance of $3.25–$3.54 (midpoint $3.40) and a 5–7% long-term operating EPS CAGR through 2029; capital plan update expected on the Q4 call in early 2025 .
Strategic de-risking continues: closed sale of 50% noncontrolling interest in CVOW to Stonepeak ($2.6B proceeds; ~~$21B debt reduction initiatives completed) and completed PSNC sale (~~$3.2B), with CVOW remaining on time/on budget and LCOE improved to ~$56/MWh primarily due to higher REC values .
Potential stock-reaction catalysts: tightened FY24 guidance and Q4 headwind transparency (financing costs, O&M timing, earlier CVOW partnership closing), CVOW execution (78 monopiles installed in the first season, 43% complete), and the Amazon SMR MOU supporting medium-term nuclear optionality under an “all-of-the-above” plan .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Dominion Energy Virginia segment operating earnings rose $127mm YoY (EPS +$0.15), aided by rider equity returns (+$0.12 EPS), nuclear PTC (+$0.04), weather normalization, and interest benefits; management narrowed FY24 guidance while preserving the midpoint and reaffirmed 2025–2029 targets .
- CVOW execution advances: 78 monopiles and 4 offshore substation foundations installed in the first season; project 43% complete, on budget/schedule; CVOW LCOE improved to ~$56/MWh on stronger REC prices, and offshore wind rider filing represented $640mm annual revenue .
- Portfolio de-risking: closed Stonepeak partnership and PSNC sale, completing ~$21B debt reduction from the business review; CFO emphasized confidence in delivering the financial plan .
What Went Wrong
- Q4 outlook includes headwinds from higher-than-expected financing costs, normal-course O&M moving to 2H, and earlier-than-planned CVOW partnership closing impacting noncontrolling interest; management reiterated conservatism in the plan design .
- Hurricane Helene drove significant disruption in South Carolina (peak ~450k outages); preliminary restoration costs are $100–$200mm with securitization likely for costs exceeding $100mm—bias toward capital versus O&M and deferred to the balance sheet .
- Regulatory lag concerns persist in South Carolina; while electric rate settlement was approved in August, management continues to seek legislative/regulatory solutions to enable earning the allowed return consistently .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
Operating Revenue ($USD Millions)	$3,810	$3,632	$3,486	$3,941
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.16	$0.78	$0.65	$1.12
Operating EPS (non-GAAP) ($)	$0.75	$0.55	$0.65	$0.98
Income from Operations Margin (%)	27.0% (1,029/3,810)	22.9% (833/3,632)	23.1% (805/3,486)	30.9% (1,218/3,941)
Net Income Margin (%)	4.1% (157/3,810)	18.6% (674/3,632)	16.4% (572/3,486)	24.2% (954/3,941)

Note: Margins are calculated from cited figures in Consolidated Statements of Income.

Segment operating earnings (non-GAAP)

Segment ($USD Millions)	Q3 2023	Q3 2024
Dominion Energy Virginia	$535	$662
Dominion Energy South Carolina	$143	$147
Contracted Energy	$52	$83
Corporate & Other	($79)	($57)
Total Operating Earnings	$651	$835

KPIs and operating drivers

KPI	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024
CVOW LCOE ($/MWh)	$73	$73	~$56
CVOW project completion (%)	28%	33%	43%
Monopiles received at PMT (cumulative)	36 (20% of total)	72 (40%)	96 (55%)
Offshore Wind Rider	$486mm filed (2023 rider)	Final order July 25 approving rider	$640mm rider filing (2024)
Data centers connected YTD (Virginia)	Expect 15 in 2024	9 connected YTD; expect 15	14 connected YTD; expect 16
Weather impact (after-tax, total company)	($47)	$96 vs PY; $25 vs normal	$2 vs normal; ($15) vs PY

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Operating EPS	FY 2024	$2.62–$2.87 (midpoint $2.75)	$2.68–$2.83 (midpoint $2.75)	Narrowed (midpoint maintained)
Operating EPS	FY 2025	$3.25–$3.54 (midpoint $3.40)	$3.25–$3.54 (midpoint $3.40)	Maintained
Long-term operating EPS growth	2025–2029	5–7% off 2025 EPS (ex RNG 45Z)	5–7% off 2025 EPS (ex RNG 45Z)	Maintained
CVOW LCOE	Project life	~$73/MWh	~$56/MWh	Improved (REC price driver)
Offshore wind rider	Virginia	$486mm annual revenue (2023 rider; approved)	$640mm annual revenue filing (2024 rider)	Increased (new filing)
Dividend	Quarterly	$0.6675 prior declaration	$0.6675 payable Dec 20, 2024	Maintained

Q4 drivers commentary: higher short-term interest costs, O&M timing (shift to 2H), earlier CVOW partnership closing impacts (noncontrolling interest), modestly higher nuclear PTC contribution and tax timing .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q1 2024 (Prev.)	Q2 2024 (Prev.)	Q3 2024 (Current)	Trend
Offshore wind (CVOW) execution	11th federal permit received; LCOE $73/MWh; monopile installation to begin; 28% complete	Strong monopile pace; rider approved July; contingency at $143mm; 33% complete	First season completed (78 monopiles, 4 substations); LCOE ~$56/MWh; 43% complete; $640mm rider filing	Improving execution; cost profile favorable (REC driver)
Data center load growth	Expect 15 connections; large campus requests; Virginia #1 business	9 YTD; expect 15; more 500kV lines; capacity auction signals need	14 YTD; expect 16; >21GW aggregate demand; request batching; contract structures detailed	Accelerating demand; infrastructure ramp
Transmission opportunities (PJM open window)	Awarded ~150 projects totaling $2.5B (Dec)	New PJM open window likely equal/greater; capacity auction headwinds manageable	Joint proposals with AEP/FE; selection in Q1 2025; potential incremental capex	Pipeline building; cadence visibility improving
Regulatory (SC/NC)	SC fuel settlement reduces bills; SC base case filed; rates ~18% below US avg	SC base rate settlement (effective Sep 1); ongoing legislation; NC settlement premised on 9.95% ROE	SC storm securitization likely (> $100mm); regulatory lag highlighted; NC interim rates effective	Constructive outcomes; lag still a focus
Nuclear/SMR & Millstone	SMR in IRP; exploring options; Millstone PPA beyond 2029	Millstone co-location explored; legislation in New England for procurement	MOU with Amazon to explore SMR; Virginia nuclear-friendly policy/structures; Millstone value reiterated	Optionality expanding; partner-led risk mitigation emphasized

Management Commentary

CFO priorities and guidance: “We’ve consistently communicated three priorities: hitting our financial plan; delivering offshore wind on time and on budget; and achieving constructive regulatory outcomes...third quarter operating earnings were $0.98 per share...we’re narrowing our full year guidance to $2.68–$2.83 while preserving the midpoint of $2.75” .
CEO on safety and storm Helene: “Our employee OSHA injury recordable rate...0.44...Hurricane Helene...nearly 450,000 service disruptions...preliminary estimate of restoration costs...$100–$200 million...intend to evaluate potential securitization of those deferred costs” .
CVOW cost/REC driver: “The project’s expected LCOE has improved to approximately $56 per MWh, the primary driver being forecasted REC prices, which have increased in value considerably” and “We saw a substantial move in LCOE...driver...higher expected REC pricing” .
Data center demand/context: “In aggregate, we have data center demand of over 21 gigawatts...63 construction delivery point requests YTD representing nearly 13 gigawatts...since 2020, 280 requests, ~40 gigawatts” .
De-risking and financing: “We have now closed on 100% of the debt reduction initiatives...approximately $21 billion...We have fully achieved our 2024 financing plan” .

Q&A Highlights

Amazon SMR MOU: Management emphasized partner-led structures addressing first-of-a-kind and cost overrun risks to protect customers and balance sheet; interest focused on SMRs rather than future offshore wind options at this time .
IRP/generation mix: Plan includes more offshore wind, gas, solar, and storage; robust build despite leveraging PJM; CCS costs not assumed—capacity factor limits modeled per EPA regs .
Storm cost recovery: Costs skew to capital; SC defers to balance sheet; securitization pursued for storm costs exceeding $100mm per settlement .
CVOW LCOE sensitivity: REC price increases under Virginia RPS materially credit against cost of service; detailed mechanics and sensitivities discussed (capital, interest, capacity factor, PTCs) .
Transmission joint projects: Proposals with AEP/FE under PJM open window; selection expected Q1 2025; potential incremental capex toward back end of 2025–2029 plan .
Fossil retirements: No fossil retirements expected over next 15 years given load growth; EPA scenarios modeled with limited swing in build plan .

Estimates Context

S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus for Q3 2024 EPS, revenue, and EBITDA was unavailable due to SPGI daily request limits at the time of query; therefore, we cannot provide versus-consensus comparisons for this quarter. Values would have been retrieved from S&P Global if available.
Implications: Given operating EPS strength ($0.98) and improved margins versus prior periods, we would expect near-term estimate adjustments to reflect the tightened FY24 range and Q4 headwinds (financing cost, O&M timing, earlier CVOW closing impact), with medium-term models incorporating stronger REC credits/LCOE for CVOW, incremental transmission opportunities, and rising Virginia load from data centers .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Earnings quality improving: Broad-based segment strength, margin expansion, and preserved FY24 midpoint despite Q4 headwinds demonstrate resilient execution against the de-risked plan .
CVOW de-risking and value accretion: On-time/on-budget status and LCOE improvement (~$56/MWh) via REC pricing materially enhance customer economics while Stonepeak partnership reduces capital intensity and balance-sheet risk .
Load growth tailwinds: Data center demand (>21GW) and unprecedented transmission delivery point requests underpin incremental regulated capex potential and longer rate base runway in later years of the plan .
Regulatory posture constructive: SC and NC settlements/approvals support near-term outcomes; SC securitization for storm costs likely; continued focus on addressing regulatory lag to earn allowed returns sustainably .
Nuclear optionality: Amazon SMR MOU and supportive Virginia policy frameworks create medium-term pathways for dispatchable carbon-free capacity with partner-led financing structures mitigating first-of-a-kind risks .
Transparency on Q4 cadence: Expect temporary headwinds from financing costs, O&M timing, and earlier CVOW closing; management reaffirmed 2025 EPS and 5–7% CAGR with capital update on Q4 call .
Dividend consistency: Quarterly dividend of $0.6675 declared, reflecting continuity through portfolio transition and plan execution .

All statements, figures, and quotes above are sourced from Dominion Energy’s Q3 2024 8-K press release (Item 2.02 and Exhibit 99), earnings call transcript, and related press releases and slides: .